Genoa
Fiorentina
Genoa – Fiorentina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.28
The short version
Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. The model predicted a win for Fiorentina (37 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.17 goals for Genoa and 1.28 for Fiorentina. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Genoa took 4 points and Fiorentina 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Genoa, 3 draws, 2 wins for Fiorentina. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genoa | 3.20 | 29 % | +8.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -6.2 % |
| 2Fiorentina | 2.25 | 42 % | -17.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Genoa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fiorentina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Genoa
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Fiorentina
- Fiorentina0-0Genoa
- Genoa2-2Fiorentina
- Fiorentina2-1Genoa
- Genoa0-1Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1-1Genoa
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Genoa – Fiorentina?
Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. The model predicted a win for Fiorentina (37 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Genoa – Fiorentina?
Our model gives 2 · Fiorentina a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Genoa win 34 %, draw 29 %, Fiorentina win 37 %.