Empoli
Palermo
Empoli – Palermo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.00 – 1.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palermo away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.00 goals for Empoli and 1.46 for Palermo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Empoli took 6 points and Palermo 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Empoli, 0 draws, 2 wins for Palermo. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Empoli | 3.60 | 26 % | -13.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +4.7 % |
| 2Palermo | 1.95 | 48 % | -9.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Empoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palermo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Empoli
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Palermo
- Palermo3-2Empoli
- Empoli1-3Palermo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Empoli – Palermo?
Our model gives 2 · Palermo a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Empoli win 24 %, draw 29 %, Palermo win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Empoli – Palermo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.