Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.35 – 1.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rayo Vallecano at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.35 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.24 for Athletic Club. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano took 7 points and Athletic Club 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 1 draw, 4 wins for Athletic Club. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rayo Vallecano | 2.70 | 35 % | +5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -1.0 % |
| 2Athletic Club | 2.60 | 37 % | -17.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Rayo Vallecano
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Athletic Club
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Rayo Vallecano
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Athletic Club
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Athletic Club
- Athletic Club1-0Rayo Vallecano
- Athletic Club3-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano1-2Athletic Club
- Rayo Vallecano0-1Athletic Club
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club?
Our model gives 1 · Rayo Vallecano a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Rayo Vallecano win 39 %, draw 29 %, Athletic Club win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.