Nantes
Stade de Reims
Nantes – Stade de Reims
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.26 – 1.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Stade de Reims away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.26 goals for Nantes and 1.36 for Stade de Reims. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.35, the predicted outcome carries +30.2 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Nantes took 7 points and Stade de Reims 11 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Nantes, 1 draw, 2 wins for Stade de Reims. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nantes | 2.10 | 45 % | -32.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -1.8 % |
| 2Stade de Reims | 3.35 |
Form and statistics
Nantes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Stade de Reims
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Nantes
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Stade de Reims
- Stade de Reims1-2Nantes
- Nantes1-2Stade de Reims
- Stade de Reims0-0Nantes
- Nantes0-1Stade de Reims
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nantes – Stade de Reims?
Our model gives 2 · Stade de Reims a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Nantes win 32 %, draw 29 %, Stade de Reims win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Nantes – Stade de Reims?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.