Swansea City
Norwich City
Swansea City – Norwich City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Swansea City at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for Swansea City and 1.17 for Norwich City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 40 %. Over their last five matches, Swansea City took 10 points and Norwich City 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Swansea City, 2 draws, 1 win for Norwich City. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Swansea City | 2.35 | 40 % | +7.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -7.2 % |
| 2Norwich City | 2.86 | 33 % | -20.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Swansea City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Norwich City
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Swansea City
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Norwich City
- Norwich City1-1Swansea City
- Swansea City2-1Norwich City
- Norwich City5-1Swansea City
- Swansea City1-0Norwich City
- Norwich City2-2Swansea City
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Swansea City – Norwich City?
Our model gives 1 · Swansea City a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Swansea City win 46 %, draw 27 %, Norwich City win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for Swansea City – Norwich City?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.