Arsenal
Leeds United
Arsenal – Leeds United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 9, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.89 – 0.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal at home (63 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.89 goals for Arsenal and 0.93 for Leeds United. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 69 %. Over their last five matches, Arsenal took 12 points and Leeds United 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Arsenal, 0 draws, 0 wins for Leeds United. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | 1.38 | 69 % | -12.5 % |
| XDraw | 5.13 | 19 % | +8.6 % |
| 2Leeds United | 7.75 | 12 % | +19.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Leeds United
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Arsenal
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Leeds United
- Leeds United0-4Arsenal
- Arsenal5-0Leeds United
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal – Leeds United?
Our model gives 1 · Arsenal a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Arsenal win 63 %, draw 21 %, Leeds United win 15 %.
What is the most likely score for Arsenal – Leeds United?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.