Shanghai Shenhua
Yunnan Yukun
Shanghai Shenhua – Yunnan Yukun
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.98 – 1.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68 %
- Both teams to score
- 67 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Shanghai Shenhua at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.98 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.50 for Yunnan Yukun. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Shanghai Shenhua took 9 points and Yunnan Yukun 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Shanghai Shenhua, 1 draw, 1 win for Yunnan Yukun. Over 2.5 goals: 68 %. Both teams to score: 67 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shanghai Shenhua | 1.55 | 60 % | -24.2 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | +18.0 % |
| 2Yunnan Yukun | 4.40 | 21 % | +20.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Shanghai Shenhua
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Yunnan Yukun
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Shanghai Shenhua
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Yunnan Yukun
- Yunnan Yukun1-0Shanghai Shenhua
- Yunnan Yukun4-4Shanghai Shenhua
- Shanghai Shenhua3-1Yunnan Yukun
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shanghai Shenhua – Yunnan Yukun?
Our model gives 1 · Shanghai Shenhua a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Shanghai Shenhua win 49 %, draw 24 %, Yunnan Yukun win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Shanghai Shenhua – Yunnan Yukun?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.