Chengdu Rongcheng
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
Chengdu Rongcheng – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.86 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Chengdu Rongcheng at home (56 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.86 goals for Chengdu Rongcheng and 1.11 for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Chengdu Rongcheng took 7 points and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Chengdu Rongcheng, 0 draws, 2 wins for Tianjin Jinmen Tiger. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chengdu Rongcheng | 1.76 | 53 % | -2.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -3.7 % |
| 2Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 3.95 | 24 % | -21.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Chengdu Rongcheng
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Chengdu Rongcheng
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1-2Chengdu Rongcheng
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2-1Chengdu Rongcheng
- Chengdu Rongcheng1-2Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Chengdu Rongcheng2-1Tianjin Jinmen Tiger
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2-3
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chengdu Rongcheng – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
Our model gives 1 · Chengdu Rongcheng a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Chengdu Rongcheng win 56 %, draw 24 %, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Chengdu Rongcheng – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.