FC Tokyo
Urawa Red Diamonds
FC Tokyo – Urawa Red Diamonds
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Tokyo at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.10 for Urawa Red Diamonds. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, FC Tokyo took 13 points and Urawa Red Diamonds 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for FC Tokyo, 2 draws, 1 win for Urawa Red Diamonds. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Tokyo | 1.68 | 56 % | -16.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +7.3 % |
| 2Urawa Red Diamonds | 4.30 | 22 % | +2.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
FC Tokyo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Urawa Red Diamonds
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- FC Tokyo
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Urawa Red Diamonds
- Urawa Red Diamonds0-0FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo1-1Urawa Red Diamonds
- FC Tokyo3-2Urawa Red Diamonds
- Urawa Red Diamonds3-2FC Tokyo
- Urawa Red Diamonds0-2FC Tokyo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Tokyo – Urawa Red Diamonds?
Our model gives 1 · FC Tokyo a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Tokyo win 50 %, draw 26 %, Urawa Red Diamonds win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Tokyo – Urawa Red Diamonds?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.