Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Henan
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng – Henan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Henan away from home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.28 goals for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng and 1.59 for Henan. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng took 5 points and Henan 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, 1 draw, 3 wins for Henan. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2.85 | 33 % | -14.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +4.0 % |
| 2Henan | 2.30 | 41 % | -5.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Henan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Henan
- Henan1-0Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Henan4-1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1-3Henan
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0-0Henan
- Henan0-2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Shenzhen Xinpengcheng – Henan?
Our model gives 2 · Henan a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win 30 %, draw 29 %, Henan win 41 %.
What is the most likely score for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng – Henan?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.