Kashima Antlers
Gamba Osaka
Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.15 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kashima Antlers at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.15 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.99 for Gamba Osaka. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Kashima Antlers took 4 points and Gamba Osaka 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Kashima Antlers, 2 draws, 0 wins for Gamba Osaka. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kashima Antlers | 1.80 | 53 % | +19.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -23.6 % |
| 2Gamba Osaka | 4.10 | 23 % | -41.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Kashima Antlers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gamba Osaka
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Kashima Antlers
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Gamba Osaka
- Kashima Antlers0-0Gamba Osaka
- Gamba Osaka0-1Kashima Antlers
- Kashima Antlers0-0Gamba Osaka
- Gamba Osaka1-2Kashima Antlers
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka?
Our model gives 1 · Kashima Antlers a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kashima Antlers win 66 %, draw 19 %, Gamba Osaka win 14 %.
What is the most likely score for Kashima Antlers – Gamba Osaka?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.