Puebla
León
Puebla – León
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Puebla at home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Puebla and 1.27 for León. Bookmakers say the same thing: 32 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Puebla took 4 points and León 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Puebla, 1 draw, 3 wins for León. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Puebla | 2.90 | 32 % | +4.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -6.3 % |
| 2León | 2.40 | 39 % | -15.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Puebla
- Last 5 matches
- At home
León
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Puebla
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- León
- Puebla0-1León
- León1-2Puebla
- León1-0Puebla
- Puebla2-2León
- León2-1Puebla
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Puebla – León?
Our model gives 1 · Puebla a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Puebla win 36 %, draw 29 %, León win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Puebla – León?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.