Instituto (Córdoba)
Boca Juniors
Instituto (Córdoba) – Boca Juniors
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 34 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.13 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Instituto (Córdoba) at home (34 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.13 goals for Instituto (Córdoba) and 1.16 for Boca Juniors. Bookmakers say the same thing: 32 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Instituto (Córdoba) took 12 points and Boca Juniors 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Instituto (Córdoba), 1 draw, 1 win for Boca Juniors. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | 2.90 | 32 % | -0.6 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 32 % | -7.3 % |
| 2Boca Juniors | 2.55 | 36 % | -12.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Instituto (Córdoba)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Boca Juniors
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Instituto (Córdoba)
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors2-0Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)0-0Boca Juniors
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Instituto (Córdoba) – Boca Juniors?
Our model gives 1 · Instituto (Córdoba) a 34 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Instituto (Córdoba) win 34 %, draw 31 %, Boca Juniors win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Instituto (Córdoba) – Boca Juniors?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.