Gimnasia La Plata
Atlético Tucumán
Gimnasia La Plata – Atlético Tucumán
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.46 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Gimnasia La Plata at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.46 goals for Gimnasia La Plata and 0.86 for Atlético Tucumán. Bookmakers say the same thing: 49 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Gimnasia La Plata took 9 points and Atlético Tucumán 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Gimnasia La Plata, 0 draws, 1 win for Atlético Tucumán. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gimnasia La Plata | 1.90 | 49 % | -5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -9.4 % |
| 2Atlético Tucumán | 4.10 | 23 % | -7.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Gimnasia La Plata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético Tucumán
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Gimnasia La Plata
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Atlético Tucumán
- Atlético Tucumán1-0Gimnasia La Plata
- Gimnasia La Plata1-0Atlético Tucumán
- Atlético Tucumán0-1Gimnasia La Plata
- Gimnasia La Plata1-0Atlético Tucumán
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Gimnasia La Plata – Atlético Tucumán?
Our model gives 1 · Gimnasia La Plata a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Gimnasia La Plata win 50 %, draw 27 %, Atlético Tucumán win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Gimnasia La Plata – Atlético Tucumán?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.