Braga
Sporting CP
Braga – Sporting CP
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 1.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sporting CP away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.14 goals for Braga and 1.65 for Sporting CP. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Braga took 10 points and Sporting CP 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Braga, 3 draws, 2 wins for Sporting CP. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Braga | 3.45 | 27 % | -11.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -12.3 % |
| 2Sporting CP | 2.03 | 46 % | -2.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Braga
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sporting CP
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Braga
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Sporting CP
- Braga2-2Sporting CP
- Sporting CP1-1Braga
- Sporting CP1-1Braga
- Braga2-4Sporting CP
- Sporting CP5-0Braga
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Braga – Sporting CP?
Our model gives 2 · Sporting CP a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Braga win 26 %, draw 26 %, Sporting CP win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for Braga – Sporting CP?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.