Waasland-Beveren
Lommel SK
Waasland-Beveren – Lommel SK
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Waasland-Beveren at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.23 goals for Waasland-Beveren and 1.09 for Lommel SK. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Waasland-Beveren took 6 points and Lommel SK 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Waasland-Beveren | 1.80 | 52 % | -32.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +22.3 % |
| 2Lommel SK | 3.95 | 24 % | +18.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Waasland-Beveren
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lommel SK
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Waasland-Beveren – Lommel SK?
Our model gives 1 · Waasland-Beveren a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Waasland-Beveren win 38 %, draw 32 %, Lommel SK win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for Waasland-Beveren – Lommel SK?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.