Lens
Lyon
Lens – Lyon
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 1.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lens at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.64 goals for Lens and 1.35 for Lyon. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lens took 4 points and Lyon 11 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lens, 2 draws, 1 win for Lyon. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lens | 2.42 | 39 % | +6.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.73 | 26 % | -9.5 % |
| 2Lyon | 2.73 | 35 % | -13.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Lens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lyon
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Lens
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Lyon
- Lyon0-4Lens
- Lyon2-2Lens
- Lens0-1Lyon
- Lyon1-2Lens
- Lens0-0Lyon
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lens – Lyon?
Our model gives 1 · Lens a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lens win 44 %, draw 24 %, Lyon win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Lens – Lyon?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.