Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.44 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Borussia Dortmund at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.44 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.94 for Werder Bremen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 70 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Borussia Dortmund took 15 points and Werder Bremen 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 2 draws, 0 wins for Werder Bremen. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Borussia Dortmund | 1.34 | 70 % | -1.4 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -12.6 % |
| 2Werder Bremen | 7.75 | 12 % | -25.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Borussia Dortmund
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Werder Bremen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Borussia Dortmund
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-2Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund3-0Werder Bremen
- Borussia Dortmund2-2Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen0-0Borussia Dortmund
- Werder Bremen1-2Borussia Dortmund
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen?
Our model gives 1 · Borussia Dortmund a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Borussia Dortmund win 74 %, draw 17 %, Werder Bremen win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.