US Avellino
Sampdoria
US Avellino – Sampdoria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards US Avellino at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for US Avellino and 1.06 for Sampdoria. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, US Avellino took 7 points and Sampdoria 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for US Avellino, 0 draws, 1 win for Sampdoria. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1US Avellino | 2.70 | 35 % | +8.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -2.9 % |
| 2Sampdoria | 2.60 | 36 % | -23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
US Avellino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sampdoria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- US Avellino
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Sampdoria
- Sampdoria2-1US Avellino
- US Avellino2-1Sampdoria
Frequently asked questions
Who will win US Avellino – Sampdoria?
Our model gives 1 · US Avellino a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: US Avellino win 40 %, draw 30 %, Sampdoria win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for US Avellino – Sampdoria?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.