Al Nassr
Al Diriyah
Al Nassr – Al Diriyah
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.14 – 0.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Nassr at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.14 goals for Al Nassr and 0.88 for Al Diriyah. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 66 %. Over their last five matches, Al Nassr took 7 points and Al Diriyah 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Al Nassr, 0 draws, 0 wins for Al Diriyah. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Nassr | 1.40 | 66 % | +3.9 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -16.8 % |
| 2Al Diriyah | 5.75 | 16 % | -42.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Nassr
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Diriyah
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Al Nassr
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Al Diriyah
- Al Diriyah1-4Al Nassr
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Nassr – Al Diriyah?
Our model gives 1 · Al Nassr a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Nassr win 74 %, draw 16 %, Al Diriyah win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Nassr – Al Diriyah?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.