PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 3-18 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.12 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards PSV Eindhoven at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-1. It expects 3.12 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.05 for Heerenveen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, PSV Eindhoven took 10 points and Heerenveen 5 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 0 draws, 1 win for Heerenveen. Over 2.5 goals: 79 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | 1.23 | 76 % | -2.7 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | -11.1 % |
| 2Heerenveen | 8.50 | 11 % | -30.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
PSV Eindhoven
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Heerenveen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- PSV Eindhoven
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Heerenveen
- PSV Eindhoven3-1Heerenveen
- PSV Eindhoven4-1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen0-2PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven2-1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen1-0PSV Eindhoven
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen?
Our model gives 1 · PSV Eindhoven a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: PSV Eindhoven win 79 %, draw 13 %, Heerenveen win 8 %.
What is the most likely score for PSV Eindhoven – Heerenveen?
The most likely score is 3-1, at 8 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.