Galatasaray
Kasimpasa
Galatasaray – Kasimpasa
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 72 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.30 – 0.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Galatasaray at home (72 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.30 goals for Galatasaray and 0.86 for Kasimpasa. Bookmakers say the same thing: 75 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Galatasaray took 9 points and Kasimpasa 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Galatasaray, 2 draws, 1 win for Kasimpasa. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Galatasaray | 1.25 | 75 % | -9.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | +0.3 % |
| 2Kasimpasa | 9.50 | 10 % | +3.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Galatasaray
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Kasimpasa
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Galatasaray
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Kasimpasa
- Kasimpasa1-0Galatasaray
- Galatasaray3-0Kasimpasa
- Kasimpasa3-3Galatasaray
- Galatasaray3-3Kasimpasa
- Kasimpasa3-4Galatasaray
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Galatasaray – Kasimpasa?
Our model gives 1 · Galatasaray a 72 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Galatasaray win 72 %, draw 17 %, Kasimpasa win 11 %.
What is the most likely score for Galatasaray – Kasimpasa?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.