Al Fateh
Al Ahli
Al Fateh – Al Ahli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 8, 03:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 0-211 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.93 – 2.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Ahli away from home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.93 goals for Al Fateh and 2.25 for Al Ahli. Bookmakers say the same thing: 65 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Al Fateh took 3 points and Al Ahli 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Al Fateh, 1 draw, 2 wins for Al Ahli. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Fateh | 5.75 | 16 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 18 % | +3.0 % |
| 2Al Ahli | 1.41 | 65 % | -9.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Al Fateh
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Ahli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Al Fateh
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Al Ahli
- Al Ahli3-1Al Fateh
- Al Fateh2-1Al Ahli
- Al Ahli2-0Al Fateh
- Al Fateh1-0Al Ahli
- Al Ahli1-1Al Fateh
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Fateh – Al Ahli?
Our model gives 2 · Al Ahli a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Fateh win 15 %, draw 21 %, Al Ahli win 64 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Fateh – Al Ahli?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.