Athletico-PR
Atlético-MG
Athletico-PR – Atlético-MG
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 7, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Athletico-PR at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Athletico-PR and 1.10 for Atlético-MG. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Athletico-PR took 8 points and Atlético-MG 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Athletico-PR, 1 draw, 2 wins for Atlético-MG. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletico-PR | 2.05 | 46 % | +1.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -12.1 % |
| 2Atlético-MG | 3.70 | 25 % | -14.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Athletico-PR
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Athletico-PR
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG2-1Athletico-PR
- Atlético-MG1-0Athletico-PR
- Athletico-PR1-0Atlético-MG
- Athletico-PR1-1Atlético-MG
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Athletico-PR – Atlético-MG?
Our model gives 1 · Athletico-PR a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Athletico-PR win 49 %, draw 27 %, Atlético-MG win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Athletico-PR – Atlético-MG?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.