Náutico
Novorizontino
Náutico – Novorizontino
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 7, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.36
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Novorizontino away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for Náutico and 1.36 for Novorizontino. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Náutico took 5 points and Novorizontino 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Náutico, 1 draw, 0 wins for Novorizontino. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Náutico | 3.10 | 30 % | +3.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -7.8 % |
| 2Novorizontino | 2.25 | 42 % | -13.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Náutico
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Novorizontino
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Náutico
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Novorizontino
- Novorizontino2-2Náutico
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Náutico – Novorizontino?
Our model gives 2 · Novorizontino a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Náutico win 34 %, draw 28 %, Novorizontino win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Náutico – Novorizontino?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.