Santos
Flamengo
Santos – Flamengo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 7, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 1.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.14 goals for Santos and 1.40 for Flamengo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Santos took 12 points and Flamengo 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Santos, 0 draws, 2 wins for Flamengo. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santos | 4.00 | 23 % | +9.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -2.6 % |
| 2Flamengo | 1.83 | 51 % | -15.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Santos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Santos
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Flamengo
- Flamengo3-1Santos
- Flamengo3-2Santos
- Santos1-0Flamengo
- Flamengo1-2Santos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santos – Flamengo?
Our model gives 2 · Flamengo a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Santos win 27 %, draw 26 %, Flamengo win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Santos – Flamengo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.