Cruzeiro
São Paulo
Cruzeiro – São Paulo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.51 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cruzeiro at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.51 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.05 for São Paulo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Cruzeiro took 9 points and São Paulo 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Cruzeiro, 1 draw, 3 wins for São Paulo. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cruzeiro | 1.86 | 50 % | -11.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -5.3 % |
| 2São Paulo | 4.00 | 23 % | +0.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Cruzeiro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Cruzeiro
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- São Paulo
- São Paulo4-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro1-0São Paulo
- São Paulo1-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro0-1São Paulo
- São Paulo2-0Cruzeiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Cruzeiro – São Paulo?
Our model gives 1 · Cruzeiro a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cruzeiro win 48 %, draw 27 %, São Paulo win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Cruzeiro – São Paulo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.