América Mineiro
Fortaleza
América Mineiro – Fortaleza
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.01 – 1.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Fortaleza away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.01 goals for América Mineiro and 1.26 for Fortaleza. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, América Mineiro took 3 points and Fortaleza 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for América Mineiro, 0 draws, 1 win for Fortaleza. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América Mineiro | 3.80 | 24 % | +5.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -0.1 % |
| 2Fortaleza | 1.90 | 49 % | -17.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
América Mineiro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Fortaleza
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- América Mineiro
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Fortaleza
- Fortaleza0-3América Mineiro
- Fortaleza3-2América Mineiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América Mineiro – Fortaleza?
Our model gives 2 · Fortaleza a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América Mineiro win 28 %, draw 29 %, Fortaleza win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for América Mineiro – Fortaleza?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.