Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
Botafogo – Vasco da Gama
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.24
The short version
Final score: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco da Gama. The model predicted a win for Botafogo (42 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Botafogo and 1.24 for Vasco da Gama. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Botafogo took 5 points and Vasco da Gama 10 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Botafogo, 1 draw, 0 wins for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo | 2.95 | 32 % | +25.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Vasco da Gama | 2.30 | 41 % | -29.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Botafogo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Vasco da Gama
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Botafogo
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-2Botafogo
- Botafogo3-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-2Botafogo
- Botafogo3-0Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-1Botafogo
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Botafogo – Vasco da Gama?
Final score: Botafogo 1-2 Vasco da Gama. The model predicted a win for Botafogo (42 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Botafogo – Vasco da Gama?
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo win 42 %, draw 27 %, Vasco da Gama win 31 %.