Vitória
Chapecoense
Vitória – Chapecoense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 0.96
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Vitória 4-0 Chapecoense. The model predicted a win for Vitória (52 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.62 goals for Vitória and 0.96 for Chapecoense. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 57 %. Over their last five matches, Vitória took 4 points and Chapecoense 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Vitória, 1 draw, 1 win for Chapecoense. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória | 1.66 | 57 % | -13.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | +2.4 % |
| 2Chapecoense | 5.00 | 19 % | +9.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vitória
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Chapecoense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Vitória
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Chapecoense
- Chapecoense1-1Vitória
- Chapecoense3-1Vitória
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Vitória – Chapecoense?
Final score: Vitória 4-0 Chapecoense. The model predicted a win for Vitória (52 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Vitória – Chapecoense?
Our model gives 1 · Vitória a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vitória win 52 %, draw 26 %, Chapecoense win 22 %.