Avaí
Londrina
Avaí – Londrina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Avaí at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Avaí and 1.09 for Londrina. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Avaí took 1 point and Londrina 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Avaí, 1 draw, 1 win for Londrina. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Avaí | 2.10 | 44 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -12.1 % |
| 2Londrina | 3.55 | 26 % | +1.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Avaí
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Londrina
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Avaí
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Londrina
- Londrina3-2Avaí
- Londrina1-1Avaí
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Avaí – Londrina?
Our model gives 1 · Avaí a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Avaí win 43 %, draw 28 %, Londrina win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Avaí – Londrina?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.