Internacional
Corinthians
Internacional – Corinthians
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Internacional at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.25 goals for Internacional and 1.10 for Corinthians. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Internacional took 4 points and Corinthians 1 point. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Internacional, 2 draws, 1 win for Corinthians. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internacional | 2.15 | 43 % | -18.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Corinthians | 3.30 | 28 % | +3.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Internacional
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Corinthians
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Internacional
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Corinthians
- Corinthians0-1Internacional
- Internacional1-1Corinthians
- Corinthians4-2Internacional
- Corinthians2-2Internacional
- Internacional1-0Corinthians
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Internacional – Corinthians?
Our model gives 1 · Internacional a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Internacional win 38 %, draw 31 %, Corinthians win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Internacional – Corinthians?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.