United States
Canada
United States – Canada
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards United States at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for United States and 1.21 for Canada. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, United States took 12 points and Canada 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for United States, 1 draw, 2 wins for Canada. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1United States | 1.80 | 52 % | -20.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +1.2 % |
| 2Canada | 4.00 | 24 % | +19.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
United States
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Canada
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- United States
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Canada
- Canada2-1United States
- United States1-2Canada
- United States2-2Canada
- Canada0-2United States
Frequently asked questions
Who will win United States – Canada?
Our model gives 1 · United States a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: United States win 44 %, draw 26 %, Canada win 30 %.
What is the most likely score for United States – Canada?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.