Goiás
Athletic
Goiás – Athletic
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Goiás at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.43 goals for Goiás and 0.95 for Athletic. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 54 %. Over their last five matches, Goiás took 6 points and Athletic 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Goiás, 2 draws, 1 win for Athletic. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Goiás | 1.71 | 54 % | -18.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Athletic | 4.90 | 19 % | +17.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Goiás
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Athletic
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Goiás
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Athletic
- Athletic1-1Goiás
- Athletic1-1Goiás
- Goiás1-2Athletic
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Goiás – Athletic?
Our model gives 1 · Goiás a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Goiás win 48 %, draw 28 %, Athletic win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Goiás – Athletic?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.