Antigua and Barbuda
Aruba
Antigua and Barbuda – Aruba
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 07:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-28 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.60 – 1.62
The short version
Final score: Antigua and Barbuda 3-2 Aruba. The model predicted a win for Aruba (47 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.60 goals for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.62 for Aruba. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. Over their last five matches, Antigua and Barbuda took 7 points and Aruba 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Antigua and Barbuda, 1 draw, 1 win for Aruba. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Antigua and Barbuda | 2.05 | 44 % | -26.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 28 % | -44.9 % |
| 2Aruba | 3.30 | 28 % | +55.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Antigua and Barbuda
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aruba
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Antigua and Barbuda
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Aruba
- Aruba1-0Antigua and Barbuda
- Antigua and Barbuda0-0Aruba
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Antigua and Barbuda – Aruba?
Final score: Antigua and Barbuda 3-2 Aruba. The model predicted a win for Aruba (47 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Antigua and Barbuda – Aruba?
Our model gives 2 · Aruba a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Antigua and Barbuda win 36 %, draw 17 %, Aruba win 47 %.