Sport
São Bernardo
Sport – São Bernardo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sport at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Sport and 1.05 for São Bernardo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Sport took 9 points and São Bernardo 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Sport, 1 draw, 0 wins for São Bernardo. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sport | 1.83 | 51 % | -18.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -0.6 % |
| 2São Bernardo | 3.95 | 23 % | +8.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Sport
- Last 5 matches
- At home
São Bernardo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Sport
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- São Bernardo
- São Bernardo0-0Sport
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sport – São Bernardo?
Our model gives 1 · Sport a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sport win 45 %, draw 28 %, São Bernardo win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Sport – São Bernardo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.