Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Luxembourg – Bulgaria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 6, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 0.97
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (50 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for Luxembourg and 0.97 for Bulgaria. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 44 %. Over their last five matches, Luxembourg took 6 points and Bulgaria 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Luxembourg, 1 draw, 1 win for Bulgaria. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luxembourg | 2.10 | 44 % | +4.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 29 % | -20.2 % |
| 2Bulgaria | 3.40 | 27 % | -15.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Luxembourg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bulgaria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Luxembourg
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Bulgaria
- Bulgaria1-2Luxembourg
- Luxembourg0-1Bulgaria
- Bulgaria0-0Luxembourg
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Luxembourg – Bulgaria?
Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (50 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Luxembourg – Bulgaria?
Our model gives 1 · Luxembourg a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Luxembourg win 50 %, draw 25 %, Bulgaria win 25 %.