Estonia
Iceland
Estonia – Iceland
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.99 – 1.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Iceland away from home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.99 goals for Estonia and 1.56 for Iceland. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Estonia took 6 points and Iceland 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Estonia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Iceland. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estonia | 5.25 | 18 % | +17.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 24 % | -11.5 % |
| 2Iceland | 1.60 | 58 % | -12.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Estonia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Iceland
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Estonia
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Iceland
- Iceland1-1Estonia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estonia – Iceland?
Our model gives 2 · Iceland a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estonia win 22 %, draw 23 %, Iceland win 55 %.
What is the most likely score for Estonia – Iceland?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.