Croatia
Spain
Croatia – Spain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 0-211 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.94 – 2.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Spain away from home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.94 goals for Croatia and 2.03 for Spain. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Croatia took 6 points and Spain 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Croatia, 1 draw, 2 wins for Spain. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Croatia | 8.50 | 11 % | +28.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | +4.8 % |
| 2Spain | 1.27 | 73 % | -15.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Croatia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Spain
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Croatia
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Spain
- Spain4-1Croatia
- Spain3-0Croatia
- Croatia0-0Spain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Croatia – Spain?
Our model gives 2 · Spain a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Croatia win 15 %, draw 18 %, Spain win 67 %.
What is the most likely score for Croatia – Spain?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.