Estudiantes de La Plata
Gimnasia (Mendoza)
Estudiantes de La Plata – Gimnasia (Mendoza)
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 4, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 0.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Estudiantes de La Plata at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.81 for Gimnasia (Mendoza). Bookmakers say the same thing: 55 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Estudiantes de La Plata took 7 points and Gimnasia (Mendoza) 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Estudiantes de La Plata, 0 draws, 0 wins for Gimnasia (Mendoza). Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Estudiantes de La Plata | 1.71 | 55 % | -5.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -2.1 % |
| 2Gimnasia (Mendoza) | 5.00 | 19 % | -13.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Estudiantes de La Plata
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gimnasia (Mendoza)
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Estudiantes de La Plata
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Gimnasia (Mendoza)
- Gimnasia (Mendoza)1-2Estudiantes de La Plata
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estudiantes de La Plata – Gimnasia (Mendoza)?
Our model gives 1 · Estudiantes de La Plata a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Estudiantes de La Plata win 55 %, draw 28 %, Gimnasia (Mendoza) win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Estudiantes de La Plata – Gimnasia (Mendoza)?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.