Ukraine
Hungary
Ukraine – Hungary
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 4, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ukraine at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.31 goals for Ukraine and 1.19 for Hungary. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ukraine took 7 points and Hungary 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Ukraine, 0 draws, 0 wins for Hungary. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ukraine | 2.40 | 38 % | -6.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -17.0 % |
| 2Hungary | 2.90 | 32 % | -0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Ukraine
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hungary
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Ukraine
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Hungary
- Hungary0-1Ukraine
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ukraine – Hungary?
Our model gives 1 · Ukraine a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ukraine win 39 %, draw 27 %, Hungary win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Ukraine – Hungary?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.