Italy
Türkiye
Italy – Türkiye
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 5, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye. The model predicted a win for Italy (50 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Italy and 1.16 for Türkiye. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Italy took 10 points and Türkiye 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Italy, 1 draw, 0 wins for Türkiye. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy | 1.39 | 67 % | -30.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | +9.3 % |
| 2Türkiye | 6.50 | 14 % | +76.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Italy
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Türkiye
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Italy
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Türkiye
- Türkiye1-4Italy
- Italy0-0Türkiye
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Italy – Türkiye?
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye. The model predicted a win for Italy (50 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Italy – Türkiye?
Our model gives 1 · Italy a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Italy win 50 %, draw 23 %, Türkiye win 27 %.