France
Belgium
France – Belgium
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 4, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.75 – 1.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards France at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.75 goals for France and 1.21 for Belgium. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 61 %. Over their last five matches, France took 7 points and Belgium 9 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for France, 0 draws, 0 wins for Belgium. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1France | 1.51 | 61 % | -22.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +3.4 % |
| 2Belgium | 5.25 | 18 % | +33.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
France
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Belgium
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- France
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Belgium
- Belgium0-1France
- Belgium1-2France
- France2-0Belgium
- France1-0Belgium
Frequently asked questions
Who will win France – Belgium?
Our model gives 1 · France a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: France win 51 %, draw 24 %, Belgium win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for France – Belgium?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.