Argentinos Juniors
Tigre
Argentinos Juniors – Tigre
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 0.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Argentinos Juniors at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.47 goals for Argentinos Juniors and 0.81 for Tigre. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Argentinos Juniors took 6 points and Tigre 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Argentinos Juniors, 1 draw, 2 wins for Tigre. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentinos Juniors | 1.83 | 51 % | -2.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -5.7 % |
| 2Tigre | 4.60 | 20 % | -17.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Argentinos Juniors
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tigre
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Argentinos Juniors
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Tigre
- Tigre1-1Argentinos Juniors
- Tigre2-1Argentinos Juniors
- Argentinos Juniors1-0Tigre
- Argentinos Juniors0-2Tigre
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Argentinos Juniors – Tigre?
Our model gives 1 · Argentinos Juniors a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Argentinos Juniors win 54 %, draw 29 %, Tigre win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for Argentinos Juniors – Tigre?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.