Girona
Mallorca
Girona – Mallorca
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Girona at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for Girona and 1.03 for Mallorca. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Girona took 12 points and Mallorca 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Girona, 0 draws, 3 wins for Mallorca. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 2.25 | 42 % | +3.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | +0.3 % |
| 2Mallorca | 3.05 | 31 % | -25.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Girona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mallorca
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Girona
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Mallorca
- Girona0-1Mallorca
- Mallorca1-2Girona
- Girona1-0Mallorca
- Mallorca2-1Girona
- Mallorca1-0Girona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Girona – Mallorca?
Our model gives 1 · Girona a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Girona win 46 %, draw 30 %, Mallorca win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Girona – Mallorca?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.