Republic of Ireland
Israel
Republic of Ireland – Israel
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.75 – 0.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Republic of Ireland at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.75 goals for Republic of Ireland and 0.95 for Israel. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Republic of Ireland took 8 points and Israel 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Republic of Ireland, 0 draws, 0 wins for Israel. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Republic of Ireland | 2.00 | 46 % | +9.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 27 % | -19.3 % |
| 2Israel | 3.45 | 27 % | -26.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Republic of Ireland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Israel
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Republic of Ireland
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Israel
- Israel0-3Republic of Ireland
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Republic of Ireland – Israel?
Our model gives 1 · Republic of Ireland a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Republic of Ireland win 55 %, draw 24 %, Israel win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Republic of Ireland – Israel?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.