Portugal
Norway
Portugal – Norway
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Portugal at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.77 goals for Portugal and 1.09 for Norway. Bookmakers say the same thing: 57 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Portugal took 12 points and Norway 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Portugal, 0 draws, 0 wins for Norway. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Portugal | 1.60 | 57 % | -13.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.30 | 21 % | -4.0 % |
| 2Norway | 4.30 | 21 % | +0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Portugal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Norway
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Portugal
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Norway
- Norway1-2Portugal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Portugal – Norway?
Our model gives 1 · Portugal a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Portugal win 54 %, draw 22 %, Norway win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Portugal – Norway?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.