Netherlands
Serbia
Netherlands – Serbia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 82 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.71 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Netherlands at home (82 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.71 goals for Netherlands and 0.68 for Serbia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 81 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Netherlands took 9 points and Serbia no points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Netherlands, 0 draws, 0 wins for Serbia. Over 2.5 goals: 66 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Netherlands | 1.15 | 81 % | -6.2 % |
| XDraw | 7.50 | 12 % | -6.6 % |
| 2Serbia | 13.00 | 7 % | -22.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Netherlands
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Serbia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Netherlands
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Serbia
- Serbia1-2Netherlands
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Netherlands – Serbia?
Our model gives 1 · Netherlands a 82 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Netherlands win 82 %, draw 12 %, Serbia win 6 %.
What is the most likely score for Netherlands – Serbia?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.