Castellón
Ceuta
Castellón – Ceuta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 4, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.22 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Castellón 1-1 Ceuta. The model predicted a win for Castellón (73 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.22 goals for Castellón and 0.71 for Ceuta. Bookmakers say the same thing: 77 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Castellón took 15 points and Ceuta 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Castellón, 2 draws, 0 wins for Ceuta. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Castellón | 1.23 | 77 % | -9.9 % |
| XDraw | 6.50 | 14 % | +16.4 % |
| 2Ceuta | 10.50 | 9 % | -7.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ceuta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Castellón
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Ceuta
- Ceuta1-1Castellón
- Castellón3-3Ceuta
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Castellón – Ceuta?
Final score: Castellón 1-1 Ceuta. The model predicted a win for Castellón (73 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Castellón – Ceuta?
Our model gives 1 · Castellón a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Castellón win 73 %, draw 18 %, Ceuta win 9 %.