Azerbaijan
Lithuania
Azerbaijan – Lithuania
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20261001-0205, Oct 3, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.30 – 1.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Azerbaijan at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.30 goals for Azerbaijan and 1.14 for Lithuania. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Azerbaijan took 8 points and Lithuania 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Azerbaijan, 1 draw, 0 wins for Lithuania. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Azerbaijan | 2.30 | 40 % | -9.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 31 % | -22.0 % |
| 2Lithuania | 3.20 | 29 % | +10.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Azerbaijan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lithuania
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Azerbaijan
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Lithuania
- Lithuania1-1Azerbaijan
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Azerbaijan – Lithuania?
Our model gives 1 · Azerbaijan a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Azerbaijan win 40 %, draw 26 %, Lithuania win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Azerbaijan – Lithuania?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.